Indian equity benchmarks are set for a cautious start on Monday, October 26, as GIFT Nifty points to a near-flat opening while elevated crude oil prices, weak Asian cues and uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision keep investors guarded.
At 7:46 a.m. IST, GIFT Nifty futures were near 22,608. The indication suggests a muted start around Friday’s Nifty 50 close of 22,600, rather than a decisive gap in either direction. GIFT Nifty is an early signal based on futures trading; the actual opening can differ as orders build before the 9:15 a.m. market open.
Oil Prices Keep Inflation Concerns Alive
Brent crude was trading around $115 a barrel in early trade, after recently touching levels near $117. Prices eased from that peak but remain high enough to keep the risk of imported inflation in focus. A sustained rise in oil can pressure India’s import bill and the rupee, while raising input and transportation costs for companies.
The oil move is also tied to continued geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and possible disruption to supply. For investors, the key question is whether crude can retreat further or remain elevated through the week. A prolonged rise could weigh on sectors with high fuel or raw-material exposure and complicate the outlook for inflation and interest rates.
Also Read: Sensex, Nifty Today, October 26: Markets Rebound From Early Losses as Pharma and Banking Stocks Gain
Asian Markets and the Fed Add to Caution
Asian equities were mostly lower in early trading. Shares outside Japan slipped about 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi were also modestly down. The softer regional tone follows a difficult week for Indian equities: the Nifty 50 lost around 2.4% and the Sensex declined about 2.2% across four trading sessions.
Investors are also looking ahead to the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but its comments on inflation and the timing of future cuts could move global bond yields and the dollar. Higher US yields can reduce the relative appeal of emerging-market equities and add to volatility in foreign portfolio flows.
Rupee and Institutional Flows in Focus
The rupee closed at ₹94.94 against the US dollar on Friday. Currency movement will remain a market cue because a weaker rupee can add to the cost of imported energy and other inputs. Foreign investors have sold heavily in October, although they returned as net buyers on Friday. That single session offers some support, but it is too early to call it a sustained reversal. Domestic institutional buying has helped absorb part of the selling pressure.
Earnings Could Create Stock-Specific Moves
Company results may keep individual shares active even if the broader indices start quietly. Infosys lowered its annual revenue-growth outlook amid softer demand in North America and disruption across traditional IT services. Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a stronger quarterly profit, supported by loan growth and lower provisions for bad loans. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories also reported profit ahead of expectations, helped by resilient domestic demand.
Also Read: Top Q2 Earnings: Infosys, Adani Power, Dr Reddy’s and More
These results could lead to different reactions within the same market. Investors will compare guidance, margins and asset quality rather than respond to headline profit growth alone. The week’s earnings calendar is likely to keep stock-specific volatility elevated.
What to Watch After the Opening Bell
A flat GIFT Nifty indication does not settle the direction for the day. Traders will watch whether the Nifty holds its recent support area, whether market breadth improves beyond a few large-cap names, and whether Brent and the rupee stabilise. The first hour may also show whether buyers are willing to step in after last week’s decline.
The opening tone is therefore cautious, with a near-flat futures signal balancing against high oil prices, weak regional markets and policy uncertainty. Any sustained recovery will likely need support from easing crude, steadier global cues and earnings that demonstrate growth is translating into profits.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Onetrader is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst.
Also Read: Indian Markets: 10 Fresh Developments to Watch on October 26
Keep learning with OneTrader
Explore structured lessons and practical guides to build your market knowledge.
